The United Nations warned Thursday that global average temperatures are likely to reach record-breaking levels over the next five years, according to a new report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The report predicts that average annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 could range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Scientists said there is a 75% chance that at least one of those years will exceed 1.5°C of warming — the critical threshold established under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

Despite the alarming forecast, researchers said the probability of temperatures surpassing 2°C above pre-industrial levels remains “exceptionally unlikely.”

The WMO also warned that the record heat seen in 2024 is likely to be broken again before the end of the decade.

“It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record,” the report stated.

Arctic regions are expected to experience especially sharp warming, with temperatures during the next five winters projected to average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline.

In Europe, northern regions could face increasingly wet winters, raising the risk of severe flooding over the coming years.

The report also highlighted the possible return of El Niño conditions, particularly during 2027 and 2028. El Niño is a climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, often disrupting weather systems worldwide.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.

The previous El Niño event contributed significantly to making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded, with global temperatures reaching approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.