The ongoing conflict involving Iran is fundamentally transforming the political landscape of the Middle East and redefining regional power dynamics, according to Galip Dalay, Senior Research Fellow for the Middle East and North Africa at the Chatham House Europe and Russia & Eurasia Programmes.

In an analysis published by Chatham House, Dalay argued that one of Turkey's greatest concerns during the conflict has been the possibility of state collapse in Iran. According to him, such a scenario would have far-reaching consequences not only for Iran but also for neighboring countries.

Dalay stated that Ankara views the collapse of the Iranian state as a worst-case scenario because it could trigger years of instability, proxy wars, refugee flows, and territorial fragmentation across the region. He emphasized that such developments would bring the Kurdish dimension of the conflict to the forefront of regional politics.

"The fallout would consume both Iran and its neighbours for many years to come," Dalay noted, warning that state fragmentation could intensify Kurdish-related political and security challenges throughout the region.

According to the Chatham House researcher, Turkey has been particularly concerned that instability inside Iran could encourage new ethnic and sectarian tensions, creating additional security challenges along its borders. He suggested that the emergence of Kurdish issues as a central factor in a fragmented Iran would have significant implications for Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and the wider region.

Dalay also argued that the war is reshaping the broader Middle Eastern order. While Turkey seeks to prevent a return to conflict and maintain regional stability, it is simultaneously adapting to a changing geopolitical environment. He noted that Ankara is concerned about Iran's growing influence over Gulf security arrangements, particularly through new regulations affecting transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Dalay believes the conflict is creating opportunities for Turkey to expand its regional influence. These opportunities include stronger defense cooperation with Gulf countries, a larger role in regional trade and transport corridors, and participation in emerging political alignments among key Middle Eastern states.

The researcher highlighted the increasing importance of connectivity projects such as the Iraq Development Road and the Middle Corridor, arguing that these initiatives could reshape regional geopolitics. He also suggested that future cooperation involving countries such as Syria and Armenia could further strengthen Turkey's strategic position.

Dalay concluded that, regardless of whether a formal peace agreement is reached, the Iran conflict has already begun transforming the Middle East. While it remains unclear which countries will ultimately benefit most from these changes, he argued that Turkey's regional role is likely to expand significantly in the post-war period.