A new policy brief released today by the United Nations Development Programme warns that the ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could push tens of millions of people into poverty across 162 countries, highlighting far-reaching global consequences beyond the immediate conflict zone.

According to the report, while the economic shock is most severe in countries directly affected by the conflict and those heavily reliant on imported energy, poorer nations far from the region are expected to suffer significant long-term setbacks. The findings are based on Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling, examining scenarios ranging from short-term disruptions to prolonged instability lasting up to eight months.

Now entering its sixth week, the crisis—despite a temporary ceasefire—is shifting from an “acute” to a more “enduring” phase. Analysts warn that the longer this phase persists, the higher the risk of deepening poverty, particularly in vulnerable economies. Under a worst-case scenario, an additional 32 million people could fall below the poverty line.

The report identifies countries in the Gulf region, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Small Island Developing States as particularly at risk due to their exposure to rising energy and food prices.

“War is development in reverse. Conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years,” said UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo. He stressed that the economic shock is disproportionately borne by countries with limited financial capacity to respond, forcing difficult choices between controlling inflation and maintaining essential public services such as health, education, and employment.

To mitigate the impact, UNDP recommends targeted and temporary cash transfers as a primary measure to support vulnerable populations. The report estimates that up to $6 billion may be required to effectively implement such assistance, depending on the severity of the crisis.

Additional policy options include limited subsidies or vouchers for essential energy consumption, such as electricity and cooking gas. However, the report cautions against broad, untargeted subsidies, noting that they tend to benefit wealthier households and place unsustainable strain on public finances.

The brief forms part of a broader series of socio-economic analyses by UNDP examining the regional and global consequences of the Middle East crisis, with further reports on the Asia-Pacific region expected in the near future.