A potential decision by the United States to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles has become a focal point of geopolitical tensions, with Kyiv asserting the weapons could be a game-changer, while Moscow warns of a major escalation.

The discussion gained prominence after former US President Donald Trump indicated he would not rule out providing the missiles if Russia continues to refuse a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the topic was discussed in a recent phone call with Trump.

"We see and hear that Russia is afraid that the Americans may give us Tomahawks — that this kind of pressure may work for peace," Zelenskyy stated on October 12. He assured that Ukraine would use the weapons strictly to strike Russian military targets.

The Kremlin has responded with measured concern. While Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly downplayed the Tomahawk as a "no serious threat," his spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told state television the potential deliveries were causing "extreme concern" in Moscow. Putin characterized such a move as "an entirely new, qualitatively different, escalation" in US-Russia relations.

Military experts highlight the Tomahawk's potential to significantly alter Ukraine's strategic options. The high-accuracy, subsonic cruise missile, with a range of up to 1,600 kilometers (approximately 1,000 miles) or more, would allow Ukrainian forces to strike critical military targets deep inside Russian territory.

According to Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, this capability could enable Ukraine to destroy key arms factories that have been beyond its reach. The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) identified potential targets such as the drone factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, and the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov, from which Russia launches bomber attacks on Ukraine. The ISW estimates that 1,600 to 2,000 Russian military sites could be within the missiles' range.

The Tomahawk's combat record adds to its formidable reputation. Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation noted that the missiles were successfully used by the US to knock out Russian air defense systems in Syria in 2017 and 2018.

"Russian [defense] systems covered Syrian targets at the time but failed [to down Tomahawks]," Kovalenko said, adding that Russian S-400 or Pantsir systems are considered "weak against Tomahawks," especially when the missiles are launched in salvos to overwhelm air defenses.

Despite the potential impact, experts caution that the number of missiles Ukraine might receive could be a limiting factor. The Tomahawk is an expensive weapon, with prices varying per customer. Katkov explained that while the Netherlands pays $12.5 million per missile, Japan pays just $4.25 million.

Under the current NATO funding mechanism for Ukrainian weapons, a typical package of half a billion dollars could buy as few as 40 missiles at the Dutch price or around 117 at Japan's price. With an annual production rate of about 50 missiles, Ukraine is unlikely to receive them in the thousands, or possibly even the hundreds.

"Whether Ukraine receives any, or just a certain number, will determine how Kyiv uses them and whether they could change the course of the war," Katkov added.

Beyond the battlefield, the potential supply of Tomahawks is seen as a powerful political message. John E. Herbst, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, stated that Trump's consideration of the move is a direct reaction to Putin's rejection of peace proposals.

"Kremlin hysteria over a possible delivery of these weapons to Ukraine shows it could influence Putin's policies," Herbst said. He believes that while the missiles may not single-handedly decide the war, they could send a strong signal that pushes the Kremlin toward serious negotiations.

The issue is expected to be a key topic during President Zelenskyy's scheduled meeting with his US counterpart in Washington, focusing on Ukrainian air defenses and long-range weapons.