The year 2025 is projected to rank as the second-warmest on record, tying with 2023 and trailing only behind the unprecedented heat of 2024, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The agency cites persistent greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels as the primary driver.

If confirmed, this would mark the first time global average temperatures have exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for three consecutive years, a critical threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. While this multi-year breach does not itself constitute a permanent failure of the agreement, it underscores the accelerating pace of climate change and the immense challenge of meeting international climate goals.

"The only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at C3S.

The warning comes amid a backdrop of extreme weather disasters globally this year, including Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines, which caused over 200 deaths, and severe heatwaves and wildfires in regions like Spain, Greece, and Indonesia.

The data shows November 2025 was the third-warmest November ever recorded, with an average global temperature of 14.02°C—1.54°C above the pre-industrial benchmark. The Arctic Ocean experienced exceptionally high temperatures, while Europe had its fifth-warmest November, capping off one of its four warmest autumns on record.

This latest analysis follows a recent UN warning that the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal is no longer realistically achievable without immediate, drastic action. The call for accelerated emissions cuts contrasts with the perceived lack of substantial new measures agreed upon at the recent COP30 climate summit in Brazil.