A growing consensus among political scientists and constitutional law experts specializing in Iraq's future indicates a stark reality: the vision of a "federal, democratic, parliamentary, pluralistic" system for the Iraqi state, as enshrined in the 2005 constitution, has irrevocably failed. These researchers are now actively exploring what alternative governmental structure might replace the post-federal phase Iraq finds itself in, questioning if it's possible to emerge from the "illusion of federalism" and forge new mechanisms to redefine relations between Baghdad and Erbil.

The search for answers has often circled back to the "Albright-Hadley Report" of 2016, a significant document specifically addressing US policy in the Middle East and, critically, the relationship between the Kurdistan Region and the Iraqi state.

This comprehensive report, spearheaded by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright (under Bill Clinton's Democratic administrations) and Stephen Hadley, former Deputy and National Security Advisor (under George W. Bush's Republican administrations), was the culmination of a year-long effort. It involved a wide array of former American diplomats, think tanks, and polling organizations.

The report was envisioned as a blueprint for "creating new policy" for the incoming US president – whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump – to be implemented after the defeat of ISIS. Its recommendations aimed to reshape US foreign policy in the broader Middle East, particularly regarding the reconstruction of the Iraqi state and the reorganization of ties between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad.

Crucially, concerning Iraq's post-ISIS reconstruction, the Albright-Hadley report emphasized a critical separation: the reconstruction of Arab Iraq should proceed independently, based on the 2005 Iraqi constitution. Only subsequently should a mechanism be found to re-establish relations between the Kurdistan Region and Iraq, also in light of the 2005 constitution. This approach highlighted a recognition that the underlying issues between Erbil and Baghdad predated and were distinct from the immediate challenges of rebuilding a war-torn nation.

However, the political landscape shifted dramatically with Donald Trump's inauguration as the 45th US President in 2017. Characterized by an unstable administration and a lack of unified staff, the Trump presidency struggled to implement a consistent policy and strategy towards global affairs, let alone the intricate dynamics of the Middle East, Iraq, and the Kurdistan Region.

Analysts argue that the erroneous policies of the first Trump administration (2017-2021), and the continuation of similar approaches towards Iraq into his theoretical during Biden administration (2021-2025), effectively eroded any remaining foundation of the federal system envisioned in the 2005 constitution, a framework largely drafted during the George W. Bush era. As a result, the Iraqi constitution has been rendered a "lifeless body," largely unenforced, pushing the Iraqi state directly into a "post-federalism" phase.

Today, Iraq no longer exhibits any characteristics of a truly federal state, and experts believe it's no longer possible to reconstruct the Iraqi state as a federal entity. The urgent quest now is to find an entirely new system to succeed this post-federal era, one that can genuinely address the complex and often strained relationship between Baghdad and Erbil. The future of Iraq hinges on identifying and implementing a viable alternative to a system that, for all intents and purposes, has ceased to exist.