Professor Joel S. Migdal is the Robert F. Philip Professor of International Studies in the University of Washington’s Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies. Dr. Migdal was formerly associate professor of Government at Harvard University and senior lecturer at Tel-Aviv University.

Dr. Migdal is the founding chair of the University of Washington ‘s International Studies Program. In 1993, he received the University of Washington’s Distinguished Teaching Award; in 1994, the Washington State Governor’s Writers Award; in 2006, the Marsha L. Landolt Distinguished Graduate Mentor Award; and, in 2008, the Provost Distinguished Lectureship. In a written interview he answered our questions like the following:

Gulan: in your opinion what is the overarching philosophy underpinning Mr. Trump’s administration approach with regard to the Middle East? 

Professor Joel S. Migdal: THERE IS NO COHERENT PHILOSOPHY DRIVING TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY. INSTEAD, WHAT EXISTS IS A SERIES OF WHIMSICAL PREJUDICES. HE BELIEVES ISRAEL IS GOOD AND IRAN IS EVIL. HE FAVORS THOSE WHO HELP PROMOTE HIS PRIVATE BUSINESS INTERESTS. OTHERWISE, HE HAS NO SENSE OF THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE REGION OR THE LONG-TERN US ROLE IN THE AREA.

Gulan:  Do you anticipate that Mr. Trump’s administration will initiate any significant efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia?

Professor Joel S. Migdal: CERTAINLY, TRUMP SEES A DEAL BETWEEN ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA AS HELPING HIM, OPENING OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIM AND HIS BUSINESS. BUT TRUMP ALSO HAS A SHORT ATTENTION SPAN. WHILE THE ISRAEL-SAUDI RELATIONSHIP WAS IMPORTANT TO HIM A MONTH AGO, IT SEEMS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED FROM HIS RADAR MORE RECENTLY.

Gulan: you are aware that the situation in the Gaza Strip is extremely challenging and deteriorating. What do you think could have been done differently to at least alleviate the situation? 

Professor Joel S. Migdal: IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WHAT WAS NEEDED FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR WAS FOR THE US AND ESPECIALLY ISRAEL TO CONFRONT THE OVERRIDING QUESTION OF THE FATE OF THE PALESTINIANS. PUTTING A POLICY IN MOTION LEADING TO A PALESTINIAN STATE IN THE LONG-TERM WOULD HAVE ENABLED THE US AND ISRAEL TO MARGINALIZE THE HAMAS LEADERSHIP AND DEAL INTELLIGENTLY WITH THE QUESTION OF THE DAY AFTER IN GAZA AND ALSO THE WEST BANK.

Gulan: Is there a viable way to be pursued by US to break the vicious cycle of the Gaza Strip situation, or is everything hopeless? 

Professor Joel S. Migdal: RIGHT NOW, THE SITUATION LOOKS BLEAK. THERE IS NOT THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP IN HAMAS, ISRAEL, OR THE US THAT COULD MOVE A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION FORWARD.

Gulan: It is evident that Mr. Trump is ramping up pressure on Iran, given the prevailing view that Iran has never been more susceptible to influence. Do you think this pressure will yield the desired results for the USA?

Professor Joel S. Migdal: WE ARE SEEING A RECONFIGURED MIDDLE EAST WITH THE DEFEAT OF HEZBOLLAH, THE FALL OF THE SYRIAN REGIME, AND THE EXTREME WEAKENING OF IRAN. I THINK IRAN UNDERSTANDS HOW SIGNIFICANTLY ITS POWER HAS DIMINISHED. THAT MAY LEAD IT TO BE MORE OPEN TO A DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES ON ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL. TIME WILL TELL.

Gulan:  Clearly, the Middle East is experiencing a deep and momentous transformation. Is this an opportunity to guide the region toward lasting stability, or has a perfect storm formed that will lead to further disintegration and distress? 

Professor Joel S. Migdal: UNFORTUNATELY, THE MIDDLE EAST DOES NOT SEEM DESTINED FOR A NEW REGIONAL STABILITY. HOW THE DYNAMICS PLAY OUT IS OPEN. CLEARLY, TURKEY AND ISRAEL ARE THE REGIONAL POWERS. IRAN CAN PLAY A SPOILER. HOW THESE THREE NON-ARAB COUNTRIES RELATE TO EACH OTHER IS AN OPEN QUESTION.